A forecast for next June meets the evidence from last June
The San Antonio Spurs received 50 percent of the championship selections in the NBA’s annual general-manager survey, released October 15, ahead of Oklahoma City at 43 percent. The defending champion New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers also received votes, leaving the team that won the last title well behind the two leading Western Conference choices.
That contrast is the story. New York beat San Antonio in five games in the 2026 Finals. The Knicks have already demonstrated that they can finish a championship run, while the survey asks executives to predict a different season with different possibilities.
CBS Sports reported that Victor Wembanyama also received 77 percent of the MVP selections. Dylan Harper was identified as a leading breakout candidate, with San Antonio experimenting in preseason with Harper alongside De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. The optimism reaches beyond the idea that one exceptional player can carry the same team a little further.
There is a plausible basketball argument for expecting improvement from a young finalist. Additional experience can sharpen decisions, expand the actions a coach can use and make players less vulnerable when an opponent takes away their first option. The possibility of that improvement is particularly attractive when a team has already reached the final series.
It remains a forecast. A vote for San Antonio is not a measurement showing that the Spurs have a 50 percent mathematical chance of winning. Executives are selecting their preferred outcome from a field, not assigning calibrated probabilities to every team. The survey also prohibits voting for one’s own team or personnel, which helps explain why its results should be read within its format.
New York’s championship deserves a different kind of weight. It is evidence of a completed achievement, rather than a projection of what a young roster might become. At the same time, a defending champion must repeat the work against opponents with new information and new personnel; last season’s result cannot guarantee this season’s finish.
The survey therefore sets up a useful tension for 2026–27. San Antonio carries the strongest expectation of taking the next step. New York carries the strongest recent proof of completing the last one. Regular-season health, lineup development and eventual playoff matchups will decide which matters more when the next championship is awarded.